|
This is an informal sketch of some aspects of
United States Citizen Initiatives Assembly (USCIA) operations for the readers'
information and the Assembly's guidance. It is not intended as a
definitive description or constraint. The Assembly's future operations will be an evolutionary process
controlled by the USCIA and cannot be accurately predicted.
The Citizen Assembly has
been given the power to adjust its operations to accommodate change. This will
be essential as the system evolves. In particular, this constitutional Amendment
only constrains the USCIA to
abide by the Constitution, gives it authority to manage Initiatives in an
appropriate manner, protects it from
outside influence, and
allows it to function more or less without Government
interference. The USCIA can vote
to change its Rules except for a small
group of rules, whose proposed changes the USCIA must seek from the Electorate
by Direct Initiatives.
It is recommended
that, before making any changes, the USCIA should first re-adopt the USCIA rules,
as deemed adopted in
the Amendment, in order to
substantiate its independent authority.
Some typical examples of deliberative assembly membership
sizes for larger developed countries, countries close to the U.S., and a few
States are show in the following table (National Assembly numbers are
green):
National assemblies range from about 300 to 660,
with an average of about 480.
They have evolved over centuries to these sizes and give a rough guide about the number of members that are large enough to
represent all the people in a nation and yet small enough to be manageable.
There are three principal factors that determine the initial number of
USCIA Members:
-
State Representation
The State with the least population is Wyoming with just over 501,000
vs. a U.S. population of 291,000,000 (2003 estimates). For this State to be guaranteed that on average it will have one
Assembly Member, there will have to be 580 or more Members. Therefore, 600 is an
appropriate upper bound for the size of the Assembly. If the Assembly has
480 Members, then Wyoming would be without representation on
average 17 percent of the time, and the District of Columbia for
7 percent of the time; all other States would have on average
one or more Members from their State.
-
Number of Members Required for a
Representative Sample
The reason that the Assembly needs a good representative
sample of all citizens is so that
its Members can
select Initiatives that will:
-
represent a full spectrum of Citizen opinions and concerns,
-
ensure that the Initiatives are easily and quickly understandable by the vast
majority of citizens,
-
select Initiatives that will probably pass so the Electorate do not have to waste their time
on unwanted Initiatives.
The current US population is about 300
million, of whom about 190 million are citizens of voting age, 125 million are
registered to vote, and 100 million actually vote. The typical sample size for a
Gallup poll which is designed to
represent this voting population is 1,000 national adults. For example, with a
sample size of 1,000 national adults, (derived by telephone calls to create a
simulated random selection), the results are highly likely to be accurate within a margin of
error of plus or minus three to four percentage points. The knee of the curve
occurs
at about 500 Members—increasing survey sample
size above about 500
yields fewer and fewer accuracy gains.
The key to an accurate poll is to get a good random sample. The Assembly will probably comprise a better random sample than
most polls
because Members have an obligatory duty to serve. In a telephone poll, those of a certain
temperament or whose time is most valuable often decline since there is no
penalty. They have to be replaced by someone else, but their replacement does
not have exactly the same opinions, and so there is a built-in distortion of the
randomness.
The adequacy of the Assembly size
to achieve a required level of
statistical accuracy will be tested in practice. The vote of the
Assembly on an Initiative can readily be compared with the vote of the
Electorate. If there is a substantial difference then it is an indication that
the number of Assembly Members should be reconsidered. On the other hand,
if it is very close, then the number of Members may be too high. Over time the
optimum number of Member can be fine-tuned as necessary.
600 Members would
accurately reflect the Electorate's wishes to plus or minus 4 percent in 95 percent
of the cases (e.g., for 19 out of 20 Initiatives).
This is the accuracy and confidence level achieved in most nationwide political
polls which do not have quite as good a random sample. On the other hand,
reducing the size of the Assembly by a fifth from 600 to 480
degrades the
confidence interval by an eighth, from ± 4.0% to ±
4.5%.
The National Assembly low-size of 300 would have a confidence
interval of ± 5.7%. This is about 50
percent worse than a good polling sample, but it would be more
manageable and would be appropriate to use as the lower bound
for Assembly size.
The Assembly Members' voting accuracy will degrade somewhat if the
Courts excuse many Members from their obligation to serve on the Assembly or if
Members are absent for the votes.
On the other hand, by having
two votes
for each Candidate
Initiative, the effective number of Members (and therefore the
accuracy) is improved due to turnover in the intervening period.
Assuming that all the Members were voting together (though this
is not the case), an indication of the improvement in accuracy
is shown in the following table:
|
TIME BETWEEN VOTES |
TOTAL NUMBER OF UNIQUE MEMBERS VOTING |
INDICATION OF CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AT
95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL |
|
0 Months |
480 |
±4.5% |
|
2 Months |
560 |
±4.1% |
|
4 Months |
640 |
±3.9% |
|
6 Months |
720 |
±3.7% |
|
8 Months |
800 |
±3.5% |
|
10 Months |
880 |
±3.3% |
|
1 Year |
960 |
±3.2% |
It is apparent that taking longer between
the two votes can give greater accuracy, up to almost 50
percent improvement with a one-year interval. A more
rigorous statistical analysis will refine these numbers but
not the general conclusion. Nevertheless, reducing the
Assembly size from 600 to 480 Members is approximately
compensated by a
three month delay between votes.
-
Member
Workforce Requirements
No one can predict how many source Initiatives will be published, and
how the rate of production will vary over time. There will probably be an
initial flurry of activity, to which the USCIA should not over-react; subsequently, the rate will probably level off to a fairly uniform level with
occasional peaks.
One reference point is the State Initiatives. In
California between
1976 and 1996, there were 106 statewide ballot initiatives, or an average of
about ten and a peak of eighteen every two years. Speculation is that there may be on the order of 500
worthwhile proposed
Initiatives
per year—i.e., excluding those that are duplicative, trivial or disingenuous. Based on five days in Session per month, each USCIA working day about
ten new proposed Initiatives will be processed. These will be reduced to
about ten Candidate Initiatives placed before the Electorate every two
years. By comparison, Congress (House plus Senate) has an average annual
workload of about 4,500 bills introduced and 750 bills voted
on. This indicates the different nature of the vast quantity of legislation
produced in Congress compared with the few Initiatives that should be put to the
Electorate.
The work load of the Members can be adjusted by:
-
Changing the number of
days
they work each month.
-
Changing the number of Members between the
minimum to maximum limits.
-
Managing the backlog and setting priorities to keep the
workload within the capabilities of the Members.
-
Adjusting the minimum
size of Citizen Groups that may propose Initiatives.
It is initially set on the high-side to reduce the chance of
an excessive number of Initiatives shortly after the
Assembly first convenes.
-
Adjusting the
Initiative Submittal Fee and the
publication Media cost.
This permits the Assembly to adjust itself to accommodate a wide range of
possible future fluctuations and eventualities within its constitutional authorization.
Based on the above, the best starting size of probably 480, with
Assembly authority to fine-tune the number up between 300 and 600.
300 is the size of the smallest of the national assemblies listed
above. 600 is the size of the largest national assemblies excluding
the U.K.
The initial number 480 is:
-
Selected primarily because it is the
average of national assemblies in developed countries, so it will be
manageable and adequate to represent the People.
-
Slightly larger than the 435 members of the U.S. House of
Representatives, but not by much.
-
At the low end but
acceptable for a reasonable nationwide poll given the quality of the random
sample.
-
Reasonably close to a large deliberative poll®*—e.g., the
"National Issues Convention" conducted by the University of
Texas January18-21, 1996 and televised by PBS.
-
Very close to the size of the Athenian
Council of
Five Hundred.
-
If the Assembly
continues to use a monthly Member replacement schedule, 480 is
divisible by 12 requiring a convenient "round number" of 40
members per month (plus any who have left before their one-year
term was complete). Thus, it is unnecessary to round up or down
to whole members. Otherwise, 500 members would be an equally
acceptable starting size.
Assuming that an Article V Convention of the States decides
the final wording of the Amendment, they would have the power to
increase the number of Members to 580-600 if they felt all States
had to have one Member on average. Of course, they would also have
to increase the budget accordingly.
The Citizen Assembly is a random sample of the people—an
exact transcript of the
whole society. By comparison, Congress
is overwhelmingly composed of white male lawyers. The
education of the
USCIA Members will be about:
-
84 percent of the population 25 years old and over have completed high
school.
-
26 percent have completed 4 or more years of college and
21 percent
hold bachelor's degrees.
-
6 percent hold a master's degree.
-
2 percent hold a professional degree (e.g., medicine or law) or other
doctoral degree.
In the USCIA, the sexes will be equally
represented (whereas in Congress, women have only a
quarter of their fair
share of members):
-
51 percent Female (vs. about 12.5 percent in
Congress).
-
49 percent Male (vs. about 87.5 percent in Congress).
The USCIA racial
representation will be about:
-
69.1 percent White (vs. about 88.6 percent
in Congress).
-
12.5 percent Hispanic or Latino of any race (vs. about 3.4 percent in
Congress).
-
12.3 percent Black or African American (vs. about 6.9 percent in Congress).
-
3.6 percent Asian (vs. about 0.9 percent in Congress).
-
0.9 percent American Indian or Alaska Native (vs. about 0.2 percent in
Congress).
-
0.1 percent Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander (vs. about 0 percent in
Congress).
The
population under 18 years of age is about 25.7 percent, who are not included
in the USCIA. It is not feasible for minors to participate regularly at USCIA
meetings. At a minimum, their parents are fairly represented on the USCIA and
will represent their children. The USCIA may take the initiative to seek out the
views of the minors in some reasonable manner.
The numbers highlight that:
-
Congressional membership is 12.5 percent female and 87.5 percent male;
i.e., a compositional sexual bias in which males
outnumber females by a factor of seven times.
-
Congressional membership is 11.4 percent non-white, whereas the total
non-whites make up 30.9 percent of the U.S. population; i.e., a
compositional racial bias
in which non-whites
are under-represented in Congress by a factor of 2.7 times.
Membership will change each month, so there will be constant
change in available skill sets. Many skills will be available in small quantity among the
Membership. However, essential skills that are unavailable from the Members will
be obtained from outside consultants. For example, the design, development and
maintenance of the USCIA's computer system will be almost entirely contracted.
Similarly, legal advice on the Initiatives and on Citizen Assembly activities will usually have
to be contracted. Nevertheless, Initiatives legal issues should usually be
modest because the USCIA is expected (but not obliged) to stay away from complex legislation,
which is much more the business of Congress.
One of the objections to the USCIA concept is that
randomly selected citizens will not be up to the job. The section on the
Wisdom of
the Assembly shows that there is every reason to believe that it can do the
job very well. The fundamental basis of
democracy is that the voters can be trusted make reasonable common sense
decisions; otherwise they would be better off with some form of dictatorship.
Time and time again it is proven that they have a high degree of common sense,
even though they may not have the education or prestige of the elite. A jury of
twelve routinely decides on matters of life and death or make civil decisions
involving huge amounts of money. The USCIA will be forty
times a large as a trial jury, and will have access to expert help and advice
whenever it wants it. People rise to the occasion, and there is good reason to
trust their combined judgment to act in the United States' best interests—arguably more reason than those representatives who have been subject to
influence of special interests groups and their lobbyists for their reelection and political careers.
Members who are less able to read, those with various handicaps,
and Citizens with English as a second language will serve an additional unique and
valuable service by helping to ensure that the Candidate Initiatives are
clear and comprehensible to the largest possible proportion of
the Electorate.
The USCIA will operate as a deliberative Assembly
for much of its work. The term deliberative here means simply that,
as compared with the People as a whole, the Members within the
institutional context of the Assembly
will become better educated about the issues by information from
various sources. They will split into smaller groups (Deliberative Task Forces) to
discuss and refine their views, and perhaps modify their opinions if
they do not stand up to debate.
The deliberative process has been well studied
academically and in polls. After the
deliberative process, participants have more thoughtful and wiser
views
(BCCA,
PBS,
Fishkin,
McCombs & Reynolds, et al).
"At the heart of the deliberative conception of democracy is the
view that collective decision-making is to proceed deliberatively—by citizens advancing proposals and defending them with
considerations that others, who are themselves free and equal, can
acknowledge as reasons. ...Citizens...owe one another
reasons, and owe attention to one another's reasons." (Cohen and Sabel, p327)
'Most important, it offers a
face-to-face democracy not of elected members of a legislature, but of ordinary
citizens who can participate on the same basis of political equality as that
offered by the assembly or town meeting. It provides a statistical model of what
the electorate would think if, hypothetically, all voters had the same
opportunities that are offered to the sample in the deliberative opinion poll..."
(Fishkin,
p4)
A deliberative Assembly consisting of a cross-section of ordinary
citizens will be able to make value tradeoffs relevant to their
lives that would be difficult for Congresspersons to accomplish
since they belong to an entirely different socio-economic class.
(For example, in the 2002 Congress, 27 of the 63 freshmen—43
percent—declared holdings that exceeded $1 million, compared with
1 percent of the American public (Salant,
AP). For another example, lawyers comprise about
40 percent of congress, about 100 times more than in the
population at large.)
When the Assembly places a Candidate Initiative on
the ballot, their views will be attached. The Electorate will find
their views to be well considered, and will generally pay them close
attention, substantially offsetting mush of the hysteria raised in
the Media.
It can be argued (Leib,
Callenbach) that a
randomly selected deliberative Assembly could approve initiatives or enact laws
directly, without going to vote by nationwide Electorate. Some
advantages are:
-
Such laws would be made by well informed Assembly Members
rather than a less informed Electorate.
-
The problem of overburdening the Electorate is avoided, so the
Assembly could pass many more laws than in the planned
Solution.
There are many reservations to giving such powers to a voter
assembly and it is doubtful that such a large
step is feasible. For example:
-
It is less consistent with the
constitutional framework, where the ultimate authority and
source of power to make legitimate final decisions is the
People, not a random sample of the People—which is not
mentioned in the Constitution.
-
A random sample is small enough that it is
possible a few charismatic activists might be able to
control the Assembly for long enough to approve an
unwise Initiative. The People can correct such error by voting
against the Initiative. (Of course, the People may occasionally be similarly
influenced. But, if the People make the mistake, it is their right.)
-
The Constitution's Guaranty Clause states that: "The
United States shall guarantee to every state in this Union a republican form of
government". While adoption of an Initiative by the People is arguably
within their purview as the ultimate authority under the
Constitution, such a claim is harder to argue for a random sample of the People.
-
The adoption of an Initiative by the Assembly
followed by a vote by the nationwide Electorate provides an
effective check and balance that is entirely consistent with the
Constitution.
-
When an Initiative is passed by the nationwide Electorate, it
psychologically and morally binds the entire Electorate to make
their decision work, whereas passage by the Assembly has far
less psychological and moral force and cannot expect the same
public commitment.
-
The voter
assembly members are not as qualified as professional
congresspersons to formulate the mass of complex legislation needed to
run the country. However, they are far better qualified to ensure that the
People's interests are properly protected by means of the relatively
small amount of initiative legislation that nationwide voters
can assimilate.
-
The initiatives
are
generated by both U.S. citizen groups and U.S.
organizations. They will vary greatly in scope and quality. Many
will be quickly eliminated from further consideration while
others will be of professional quality and importance equal to any produced
by government. The Assembly will
obtain whatever information and advice it deems necessary and
will advance
those in the best interests of the People.
-
It is an even larger step than the Planned
Solution, and would be even harder to achieve.
Consequently, this Amendment Solution limits the
Assembly to managing only the choosing of the Initiatives, and the People
make the decision to approve them or not.
For jury duty, even though this is usually of short
duration and does not involve being away from home for protracted periods, it is common for high-salary people to employ a lawyer to have them excused.
Easy avoidance of duty is unacceptable for Citizen Assembly Members, because they are chosen to be a
representative sample of the Electorate. For example, excusing someone with a
doctoral degree would mean that there is only one chance in 50 that a new
randomly selected person would have similar qualifications. USCIA duty must be
regarded more in line with a conscript military duty, where absence without leave
is punishable by time in prison. Therefore, excessive hardship must be proven in
court to be excused
USCIA duty.
Members will experience some discomforts and impositions. They will probably
have little free time during USCIA sessions. They will have to take leave of absence from
their jobs for a part of every month for one year. They will not
receive privileges such as college tuition for military service or veterans
benefits. Consequently, they must receive a high enough
compensation that the large
majority of Members will not find it an unreasonable imposition.
There is another important compensation—prestige and achievement. When the records are made public, if the Member
wishes, a Members' service will be acknowledged in the
USCIA records along with the accomplishments of that particular USCIA period.
A USCIA culture will evolve to define and encourage this. Moreover, the USCIA
will offer to repeal this constitutional
Amendment so the achievements of these years will be the early
Members' legacy to the nation.
Voting on Initiatives will occur on every even year, concurrently with the
federal
election. This is the easiest and most economical frequency. However, if the
people find Initiatives to be an important improvement to their democracy and if
future technological advances make elections less expensive, it is possible that an annual vote will be more appropriate. One of the factors that
will enter into the evaluation is the turnout of the voters. It may be that the
Initiatives alone increase the turnout, or it may be that eventually some form of tax
or other incentive will compensate those who take the time and trouble to fulfill their
citizens duty to vote, and possibly penalize those who do not. After a thorough
evaluation of the costs and impacts, the Citizen Assembly has the authority to place a
Direct Initiative before the Electorate to change the frequency.
Two Initiative databases linked only by key(s) will be developed and
maintained to track all proposed Initiatives and Citizens' feedback through their progress. This will
be needed urgently from the start.
-
The
external Initiative database will be
public information readable from the Internet and conveniently
organized. Publishers that have committed to publishing and
reporting on proposed Initiatives will accept only the USCIA
standard forms, will publish them in that form, and will
concurrently provide their data in electronic form to the
Assembly to build the external database.
-
The
internal Initiative database will be confidential,
updateable and accessible only to the Assembly. However, it must be kept simple to use, as many Members will
not be computer literate and will need help. It should use software with which
the majority of those Members who are computer literate are familiar. A help desk should be provided and
the more experienced Members will generally help others.
An
off-the-shelf SQL database engine should be able to provide basic storage and
data entry capabilities in a few months if highly competent consultants are
employed; refinements can be added later. If the newspaper(s) will provide
their Initiatives sections in electronic form, which should be possible
to arrange, this will help populate the database. The status of each Initiative
should be tracked, and the drafts kept from the time of original communication
through the various stages of rejection or to final ratification. The
Initiatives must be given key words and phrases. They should be identified by
primary index and search indices etc. A complete text search
should be provided. Needless to say, reliability, backup, security, virus
Trojans, worms, protection, prevention of DOS attack, etc. are all
important considerations, and at least one off-site backup is mandatory.
The Assembly's web site should be placed with a
large Internet Service Provider offering 24x7 service with
redundancies and large Internet channel capacity. Only
publicly published data such as the publicly-visible portion of the
proposed initiative database should be housed there. It will contain Proposed
Initiatives, Revisions, Comments, and other forms to enable citizens to
propose initiatives in a standard format that can be automatically added
to the database (but not submitted to the Assembly except via the
Publishers).
The
appeal of on-line democracy should be limited and expectations
managed from the beginning to avoid multiplication of risks and
potential for overload of Assembly resources. From an early date,
the external database should include a capability for Citizens to
debate the issues—e.g., to comment on proposed initiatives or
on other Citizen's comments, and to participate in public opinion
polls about the proposed initiatives (when this can be done
reliably). The information provided in this manner will be used only
to advise the Assembly—the Assembly has no obligation to act on or
respond to the public debate, though useful information or advise
may affect the thinking of some Members. Once the Assembly
operations have stabilized, the Members can review the
state-of-the-art and add features that can advance Assembly
performance and better meet the People's expectations.
Note that the issue
of Internet voting on the general election ballots is an entirely
separate issue. Moreover, there is currently no proven technology
that permits Citizens to be identified uniquely and prevent abuse or
to ensure "one-vote per voter". These issues are independent of and
not a part of this Planned Solution.
The computer system will probably be a straightforward set of
a few local area networks
on a single domain
with single-point fire-walled broadband Internet access. All email, browsers, and faxes should
go through specific recording servers so that any misuse or tampering with the
Assembly or other outside influence
may be detected or at least evidence gathered after the fact. A standard suite
of office functions should be provided using features with which Members are
most likely to be familiar. All host computers should be interchangeable (i.e.,
central logon and profile), and arranged in a few rooms
where Members can have easy but secure access to their user and groups'
information from any host. It will probably be sufficient to start with the
number of host computers equal to about a third of the number of Members.
The computer system must be capable of entire and safe relocation in about a
week, since it will probably be moved periodically to new USCIA facilities. Cabling should
be kept as unobtrusive as possible without significant structural intrusion or
potential hazard. Wireless connections should only be considered if that
technology has been used in a similar manner in large financial organizations
such as banks and proven truly to be secure
without labor-intensive support.
It is anticipated that the USCIA will let a contract for the computer system
design, high-level (i.e., minimal hand coding) programming, installation, operation and
maintenance. However the contract cannot stay with the same company for a long
time to avoid entrenched support personnel or organizations. All aspects of the
computer system and software must be off-the-shelf generics and standardized to
the maximum degree to minimize the learning curve and facilitate
inter-application data transfer. A formal hand-written or printed up-to-date
hard-copy ledger will be
kept of all changes and complete detailed logs will
be kept containing all information necessary for a new contractor immediately to
manage the system. All key information kept on-site will be stored in a
re-locatable high-quality fire safe for general papers, a security safe, and a
magnetic media fire safe.
A
single platform should be used for the
efficiency and convenience of the Assembly even if this means
sole-sourcing all the hardware and software—multiple hardware and software vendors
would present onerous complications due to mandated turnover in
users, service personnel and locations. The exception to this would
be to install a few machines for a small minority of Members who
would find the transition to another operating system environment to
be an onerous learning curve. However, these exception hosts must
only be allowed if they can incorporate applications that enable
them to access and write the same data as the other hosts (without
any data manipulation or conversion being provided by the Assembly's
computer system or not-of-the-shelf software written by the
Assembly's consultants). Duplication of data and effort must be
avoided.
Whenever a group of strangers are gathered together for important business,
as with a Jury, their behavior will be variable; that is the way it is in the real world, and the
Citizen Assembly is made
up of a random sample of us. The USCIA has the responsibility to maintain
reasonable standards of behavior. Members' oath of duty imply a substantial level
of dignity and civility, this will be reinforced by peer pressure, then
controlled by our
normal societal means and, in the last resort, by expelling a Member.
In addition to the facility
details specified in the constitutional Amendment and Assembly
Rules, it is anticipated that the Citizen Assembly will choose hotel/motel
facilities that they will negotiate for one year.
They will be located in a
pleasant geographic area. Members will need reasonable facilities for normal
shopping, recreation, entertainment, etc. A pool of automobiles (not marked or
distinctive) should be rented for Members' use while the Assembly is in session.
Restaurant facilities
will be required. Bedrooms accommodations should each have television
and possibly a small kitchen area. Bedrooms will not have Internet access. A year-round pool and gym
should be
available.
Research, study and computer facilities may be spread through
several adjacent rooms. At least 32 rooms will be needed that can
seat 15+ persons for small-group deliberation. The fully-equipped
main conference room should seat 500+.
For security reasons, the main facilities should be such that they can be guarded and access can be restricted. Access via the
lobby will be fully monitored. Accessibility will be from interior hallways, and
all exits will have no re-entry. Room telephones will be available for outgoing
telephone calls only, and they may be monitored; Members will not be permitted
to bring cell or portable phones. No internet connections will be provided in
the rooms, nor will Members be allowed to bring their own computers, fax
machines, or equivalent communications devices.
When the USCIA is not in Session, the facilities containing
their equipment and records will be locked, secured and
guarded.
There are some requirements that proposed Initiatives should follow. They are set
forth in the constitutional Amendment
Section 2, and in the Citizen Assembly Rules under
Content and Format of Candidate
Initiatives and
Sources.
The following table will provide a suggested layout. When the proposed Initiative is published in a newspaper to communicate it to the USCIA, all the
information must be complete including the certification by a Notary Public.
|
Title of Proposed
Initiative |
| | |